Supernatural # 11 in DVR timeshifted numbers

[agt_spooky]

Here's the next set of DVR time shifted numbers from the TV By the Numbers site for season four. These numbers are for In the Beginning, which aired on October 2nd.

For the week of September 29 - October 5, Fox’s Fall 18-49 demo king House had the largest audience via DVR viewing with 3.583 million viewers via DVRs. NBC’s Heroes was second with a DVR viewing audience of 2.903 million. Rounding out the top ten for the largest DVR audiences were Desperate Housewives, Fringe, NCIS, Survivor:Gabon, Bones, Criminal Minds, Two and A Half Men and CSI:Miami.

The CW’s 90210 had the top show for percentage increase over their Live audience increasing 41.1% in Live+7 viewing. Rounding out the top 10 for largest % increase via DVR viewing were Heroes, House, Privileged, Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Fringe, Prison Break, Gossip Girl and America’s Top Model.

Although we know now that DVR viewing past the airdate is entirely meaningless to the show’s advertising revenue and likely its ultimate success, we like seeing the trends regardless.
 

Greatest % Increase from Time-Shifting for Broadcast TV Shows:

Rank	Programs	Network	Persons Live+7 (000s)	Persons Live (000s)	Time-shifted Audience (000s)	% increase from Live to Live+7
1	90210	CW	3,801	2,694	1,107	41.1%
2	HEROES	NBC	11,124	8,221	2,903	35.3%
3	HOUSE	FOX	14,962	11,379	3,583	31.5%
4	PRIVILEGED	CW	2,212	1,692	520	30.7%
5	TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES	FOX	6,195	4,740	1,455	30.7%
6	FRINGE	FOX	11,721	8,997	2,724	30.3%
7	PRISON BREAK	FOX	6,008	4,671	1,337	28.6%
8	GOSSIP GIRL	CW	3,794	2,961	833	28.1%
9	AMERICA’S TOP MODEL	CW	4,459	3,489	970	27.8%
10	LIPSTICK JUNGLE	NBC	6,357	5,022	1,335	26.6%
11	SUPERNATURAL	CW	4,049	3,217	832	25.9%
12	PRIVATE PRACTICE	ABC	9,224	7,375	1,849	25.1%
13	BONES	FOX	11,201	8,972	2,229	24.8%
14	ONE TREE HILL	CW	3,791	3,037	754	24.8%
15	SMALLVILLE	CW	4,614	3,701	913	24.7%
16	CHUCK	NBC	7,600	6,136	1,464	23.9%
17	LIFE	NBC	6,373	5,248	1,125	21.4%
18	DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES	ABC	17,090	14,207	2,883	20.3%
19	PUSHING DAISIES	ABC	6,893	5,755	1,138	19.8%
20	SURVIVOR: GABON	CBS	14,052	11,777	2,275	19.3%

The % Time-shifting table ranks which of the Top 150 broadcast shows [by Live+7 viewers] had the largest % increase in viewing between Live audience and Live+7 audience numbers from viewers watching shows later on their digital video recorders (DVRs).

~~~~~

And in a related article, just like I thought...
 

DVR Viewing Past Airdate Meaningless to TV Revenue

Posted on 16 October 2008 by Bill Gorman

We got a peak at the C+3 commercial ratings for the first week (September 22-28) of the season via articles today in TVWeek and MediaDailyNews. Those C+3 commercial ratings, which we do not have regular access to, measure how many people actually watched the commercials in shows within 3 days of the airdate. We have been told by many people in the industry that it’s these C+3 ratings that advertisers base their rates on. So, C+3 commercial ratings are all that matters. All the other numbers on our site, and pretty much everything you see elsewhere in the media, are program ratings which measure program not commercial viewing. 

The stories revealed the C+3 adults 18-49 ratings for the top 10 shows and the top 4 networks on average for the week of September 22-28, 2008. The Live+SD 18-49 data is from information we regularly get from Nielsen.

Show	Net	18-49 C+3 commercial rating	Live+SD 18-49 program rating	C+3/ Live+SD ratio
Grey’s Anatomy	ABC	6.97	7.4	94%
Sunday Night Football	NBC	6.47	6.9	94%
Desperate Housewives	ABC	6.35	7.1	89%
CSI: Miami	CBS	4.99	5.2	96%
Dancing With the Stars	ABC	4.86	5.3	92%
House	FOX	4.72	5.1	93%
Two and A Half Men	CBS	4.72	5.3	89%
The OT	FOX	4.59	4.9	94%
NFL Pre-Kick Sunday	NBC	4.46	4.5	99%
Fringe	FOX	4.10	4.1	100%

Network	18-49 C+3 commercial rating	Live+SD 18-49 program rating	C+3/ Live+SD ratio
ABC	3.49	3.8	92%
NBC	3.14	3.3	95%
CBS	2.83	3.1	91%
FOX	2.65	3.0	88%

-
I draw a few conclusions from these numbers:

1. DVR viewing past the airdate is meaningless for show revenue. In no cases was the C+3 commercial rating greater than the Live+SD program rating, so no viewing numbers past the time period covered by Live+SD are meaningful for advertising revenue. Networks may tout, and we may track, Live+7 DVR viewing, but it’s not meaningful to the business. Fans hanging their hopes on show renewal based on Live+7 audiences should take this to heart.

 

Comments

[dairwendan.livejournal.com]

I appreciate you posting the numbers.

I'm wondering though why TV By the Numbers even keeps track of the DVR numbers if they're meaningless? I mean, advertising revenue is everything. The only point of ratings is that the networks can charge more for advertising spots on higher rated shows. The only reason for trying to determine or program for a certain audience is to attract companies with products aimed at that part of the public. So who is using this information? Why bother tracking it? I don't get it.

[agt-spooky.livejournal.com]

I appreciate you posting the numbers.

You're very welcome. :-)

So who is using this information? Why bother tracking it? I don't get it.

I don't, either. Folks always get excited when they see how many people recorded it to watch later, but I say time and again that this is a double edged sword - because advertisers don't like people to be fast forwarding through their commercials. It's better if SPN is at the bottom of the list (or not on it at all!) because that means more people are watching it live. And more appealing to those advertisers.